Europa à Deriva

"I’m concerned about Europe. Actually, I’m concerned about the whole world — there are no safe havens from the global economic storm. But the situation in Europe worries me even more than the situation in America.

Europe has fallen short in terms of both fiscal and monetary policy: it’s facing at least as severe a slump as the United States, yet it’s doing far less to combat the downturn.

The biggest question is what will happen to those European economies that boomed in the easy-money environment of a few years ago, Spain in particular.

For much of the past decade Spain was Europe’s Florida, its economy buoyed by a huge speculative housing boom. As in Florida, boom has now turned to bust. Now Spain needs to find new sources of income and employment to replace the lost jobs in construction.

In the past, Spain would have sought improved competitiveness by devaluing its currency. But now it’s on the euro — and the only way forward seems to be a grinding process of wage cuts. This process would have been difficult in the best of times; it will be almost inconceivably painful if, as seems all too likely, the European economy as a whole is depressed and tending toward deflation for years to come."

Paul Krugman, New York Times, 15-Mar-2009


Seguindo a análise de Krugman Portugal terá um futuro negro (senão de supernova...) à sua frente. Sem economia real (ou a viver do turismo), sem qualquer capacidade de atrair investimento, sem uma política monetária soberana, com uma política fiscal organizada por charlatões em que os horizontes futuros nunca ultrapassam os quatro anos, altamente endividado (velociadade de 48 milhões de euros/dia), com a credebilidade a descer internacionalmente e a viver na sombra política (o socialismo dos imbecis e das causas fracturantes) e económica (principal importador e exportador) dos espanhois que se afundam à velocidade do Bolama...rápidamente seremos a Somália da Europa.